Kentucky Derby 150

On By Vaseline

One of the things that has been on my bucket list for years is going to the Kentucky Derby. In the 1990s and early 2000s I spent a lot of time handicapping horses. I lived in the triangle in Southern California between the Santa Anita, Hollywood Park and Del Mar race tracks. Then life happened and my focus shifted to grandchildren and now soon to be a great-grandson. I watched Donna Barton, one of the first female jockeys to race at that track, and she was the guest speaker at our reception on Thursday evening.

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Former jockey and horse racing commentator Donna Barton.

Instead of putting money into our IRAs this year to lower our taxes, Donna and I decided to put it toward something now. So I got an email from my Marriott credit card saying they had a Derby package limited to 20 couples and I ordered it the same day.

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That’s my Bob Devaney jacket from the 1983 Orange Bowl.

The whole experience so far has been great with more food and drink you need and my recent weight loss taking a back seat. Today was Kentucky Oaks and it was wet and rained all day.

Tomorrow doesn’t look like it will be that wet, but as you can see the track is quite sloppy. So let’s focus on the Derby field that has some experience in the mud. I will put them in numerical order and not make any betting recommendations. Just the facts about their previous races on wet tracks. You can decide if they are worth your consideration.

1. Dornach – In the December 2 Grade 2 Stakes race at Aqueduct in New York he ran a mile and 1/8th in the mud and won by a nose over the 2 horses Sierra Leone.

2. Sierra Leone – On February 17 at Fair Grounds he won in a Grade 2 Stakes by half a length from Track Phantom and Catching Freedom finished third by a further half length. Last race in the mud on December 2 he finished 2nd against Dornach. He won his final Class 1 race on a dry track, beating Just a Touch (8) and Epic Ride, the No. 21 scratch entry.

3. Mystik Dan – On February 3 at Oaklawn Park in a Grade 3 Stakes he defeated Just a Steal (8 horses) by 8 lengths.

4. Catching Freedom – On that same February 17 at the Fairgrounds race he ran third by 1 3/4 lengths to Sierra Leone and Track Phantom. He rebounded in the Grade 2 Arkansas Derby to beat Honor Marie by a length.

6. Just Steel – Finished second to Mystik Dan by 8 lengths in the February 3 race.

7. Honor Marie – In that same Grade 2 race on February 17, he finished 5th by over 6 lengths to Sierra Leone, Track Phantom and Catching Marie.

8. Just a Touch – On March 2, he finished 2nd in a Class 3 race at Aqueduct. In his follow-up race at Keenland he again finished second to Sierra Leone in a Class 1 race by 1 1/2 lengths.

12. Track Phantom – Last October 29, he finished half a length second in a first race. He finished second in Sierra Leone at the February 17 Fair Grounds race.

15. Domestic Product – Badly beaten by Dornach and Sierra Leone by 16 lengths at Aqueduct on 2 December.

17. Ferocity – Also ran twice in wet conditions and delivered a mixed bag. He broke his first race in the mud at Saratoga, winning by 11 1/4 lengths on August 25. He immediately jumped to Grade 1 level and failed badly on a sloppy track, losing by more than 20 lengths. His final race was the Grade 1 Florida Derby, which he won by 13 1/2 lengths. A bit of Jekyll and Hyde. Most of it resembles the odds on favorite.

19. Resilience – Ran 4th in the February 17 race behind Sierra Leone, Track Phantom and Catching Freedom.

20. Society Man – Two races in the mud and broke his Virgo at Aqueduct on March 9 in the mud. 50-1 morning line so probably not a factor.

That’s the analysis of how the field got into the mud. The forecast for Derby Day is for less moisture than Friday, so it will be crucial to monitor how the track holds up in the early races. I won’t be taking any of that to the IRA/leaving it to the kids’ money for that race. Wish me luck.