Best post positions from the Churchill Downs starting gate

On May 4, 2024By Vaseline

Over the course of a thrilling two minutes on Saturday, horses will jockey (no pun intended) for position over 1 1/4 miles of Kentucky dirt, with the winner of that frantic sprint earning a place in history as the world’s champion most legendary breed.

However, the winner of the 2024 Kentucky Derby will not only be determined by whoever crosses the finish line first at Churchill Downs. Historically this will be influenced by where the winning horse started the race.

One of the dozens of factors that go into predicting the Run for the Roses is the race’s post position – that is, where each competitor is in the 20-horse starting gate before setting off.

For those who follow the sport closely and try to bet correctly on the winner of the race, the post position draw in Kentucky Derby last Saturday was an event of considerable importance. Where a horse starts does not predict whether he will win the race. But based on nearly a century of results, even a top contender may gallop into the famed Winner’s Circle.

To get a better idea of which horses are well positioned to win the 2024 Derby, here’s a look at the post positions of previous winners since the starting gate was first used in 1930, how many winners there have been from each post position came and more:

Kentucky Derby best postal position

Post position No. 5 has produced the most Derby winners, with 10 wins in 94 starts, along with eight second-place finishes and four third-place finishes.

The last winner from the No. 5 post position came in 2017, when Always Dreaming took first by 2 3/4 lengths. However, for all its historic success, the post position hasn’t been in the top three since Audible finished third in 2018.

This year, Catalytic will occupy fifth post position, although the horse is not among the race favorites. As of Thursday morning, Catalytic had 42-1 odds to win.

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Kentucky Derby wins in post position

Although post position No. 5 has been home to most Derby winners, this distinction is not made by a wide margin.

Post position Nos. 8 and 10 have each produced nine Derby winners, just one behind the lead. Mage, the 2023 Derby champion, came from No. 8. Post position Nos. 1 and 7 were each home to eight Derby victors.

Beyond post position No. 10, a horse’s chances of winning the Derby noticeably decrease. Only one gate from Nos. 11 through 20 has produced more than five Derby winners, while six of those ten spots have been home to two or fewer champions, including post position No. 17, which has never been the starting spot for a Derby -winner .

Here is the number of Derby champions who have emerged from each post position:

Post #1: 8 winners
Post #2: 7 winners
Post #3: 5 winners
Post #4: 5 winners
Post #5: 10 winners
Post #6: 2 winners
Post #7: 8 winners
Post #8: 9 winners
Post #9: 4 winners
Post #10: 9 winners
Post No. 11: 2 winners
Post No. 12: 3 winners
Post No. 13: 5 winners
Post No. 14: 2 winners
Post No. 15: 6 winners
Post No. 16: 4 winners
Post No. 17: 0 winners
Post No. 18: 2 winners
No. 19: 1 winner
No. 20: 2 winners

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2024 Kentucky Derby Post Positions

What could that history of finishes from different spots on the starting gate mean for the 2024 Derby?

Here you can see which horse starts from which post position:

No. 1: Dornoch
No. 2: Sierra Leone
number 3: Mystik Dan
number 4: Capturing freedom
number 5: Catalytic
number 6: Plain steel
No. 7: Honor Marie
No. 8: Just a touch
No. 9: Encino (scratched)
No. 10: TO Password
No. 11: Always young
No. 12: Follow the phantom
No. 13: West Saratoga
No. 14: Endless
No. 15: Domestic product
No. 16: Great Mo the First
No. 17: Ferocity
No. 18: Stronghold
No. 19: Resistance
No. 20: Society person
No. 21: Epic ride