How F-16 fighter jets could be key to helping Ukraine defeat Russia’s summer offensive

Ukrainian forces are eagerly awaiting the arrival of F-16 fighter jets to help them beat back Russia in its expected summer offensive, as Moscow continues to make gains in the east.

A coalition of NATO allies – Belgium, Denmark, the Netherlands and Norway – has agreed to donate about 45 F-16s to the Ukrainian air force.

According to Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo, the plane could arrive as early as June, although the first delivery is expected to include only around six planes, reports suggest.

Experts say the Western-supplied F-16s will give Kiev’s flock of aging Soviet-era fighters a major upgrade, allowing Ukraine to reassert dominance in the skies while freeing up other weaponry that could also strike on Russian territory.

Defense analyst and historian Peter Caddick-Adams told the story i: “The fact that the F-16s are arriving soon is a great morale boost. This is a great upgrade over the management of Soviet-type aircraft. Ukraine has already lost a number of aircraft and experienced pilots, so this will help a lot.

“The Ukrainians have had greater success in operating and destroying Russia in the air, and they are stepping up their attacks and attacking targets in Russia, forcing the Russians to withdraw their air defenses across the border into their own territory.”

Russia’s air defense systems include the S-300 and the highly advanced S-400, and a fleet of Su-25s.

Ukraine has lost at least 86 aircraft since the war began, while Russia has reportedly lost more than 100, according to open-source intelligence site Oryx.

As part of the deal, instructors will train Ukrainian pilots in Romania and Denmark to fly and maintain F-16s.

“They have a new air crew trained to fly them across the West – airframes are irrelevant unless they can be flown by skilled fighter pilots, so the training from Europe will allow Ukraine to conduct an air campaign,” Caddick-Adams said .

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has claimed that Ukrainian forces shot down a Russian Su-25 fighter-bomber over the Donetsk region last weekend. It is estimated that Russia had between 70 and 80 serviceable Su-25s before invading Ukraine more than two years ago. Kiev claims to have shot about six of these.

Justin Crump, a former British army officer who runs the risk intelligence firm Sibylline, said i: “(F-16s) will also be used to shoot down drones and air defense systems, so they will be used defensively, freeing up other aircraft that are good for shooting down cruise missiles and drones.

“But F-16s will still be used to intercept drones and cruise missiles in the West – or they could go after Russian aircraft, which is quite difficult given their long-range air-to-air missiles, so it’s less likely they will do that . bombing runs behind enemy lines.

“F-16s are a step forward, but they cannot radically change missions. They will be a boost for Ukraine – they are more complex and better systems with a greater variety of weapons that can be used.

“They will most likely be used alongside the ATACMS (long-range missile system), combining several systems to maximize impact and used in more targeted attacks in the Donbas and Crimea.”

Ukraine first requested F-16s from its allies in the early weeks of Russia’s full-scale invasion, but the U.S. only signed up for a third-party transfer of its allies to Kiev last summer. As part of the US $61 billion aid package, more and more Western weapons supplies are beginning to arrive in Ukraine, including ATACMS.

However, reports indicate that Russian forces have made further advances in recent days, capturing several more villages in Donetsk, including Ocheretyne, northwest of the former Ukrainian stronghold of Avdiivka, which fell in February.

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Experts believe that steady progress can continue until Ukraine’s weapons are operating at full capacity.

Mr Crump said: “I think the Russians will continue to gain ground this summer because there are still shortages, so they (the Ukrainians) are not in a great position. But when the weapons arrive, they will make the Russians pay for them. It costs Russia a lot to keep making progress.

“The F-16s will prove useful, but they will want to maintain their air power because the number of F-16s that Ukraine will initially receive is quite low.

“They will have to use their F-16s intelligently and get used to them. They will have to work hard to find the right missions, as Russian systems are designed to deal with these types of aircraft.”