NHC Now Tracking 5 Tropical Waves, Texas Will See Heavy Rainfall

On By Vaseline

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The National Hurricane Center is monitoring five disturbances in the Atlantic Ocean, with a low chance of developing in the next seven days.

According to the latest advisory, one system in the Gulf of Mexico has a 30% chance of developing over the next week. Two disturbances have a 20% chance, and two more have a 10% chance. One of the disturbances with a 10% chance of developing is located just off the coast of Texas.

The tropical waves that the Hurricane Center has marked on its tropical watch map are located:

  • In the northwest Gulf of Mexico
  • Over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and southwestern Gulf of Mexico
  • In the northwestern Atlantic Ocean
  • In the Central Atlantic Ocean
  • In the eastern Atlantic Ocean

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Tropical Disturbance Tracker: Are They Impacting Texas?

The system near the Louisiana and Texas coasts is expected to bring heavy rain to parts of the northern Gulf Coast over the next day or so. From Friday through Saturday, the main heavy rain zone will be concentrated over northern Florida, southern parts of Alabama and Georgia, and coastal South Carolina, AccuWeather said.

Aside from the heavy rainfall, it is too early to tell whether the tropical waves will have an impact on Texas or the US.

Northwestern Gulf of Mexico: A low pressure area is producing widespread, chaotic showers and thunderstorms across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, including near the coasts of Louisiana and Texas.

Winds at higher altitudes are expected to be less favorable for development from Friday and Saturday as a front approaches the system.

While development is unlikely, heavy rainfall is expected across parts of the northern Gulf Coast over the next day.

  • Chance of formation after 48 hours: Low, 10 percent.
  • Chance of formation after 7 days: Low, 10 percent.

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and southwestern Gulf of Mexico: Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased slightly, with a tropical wave moving westward across the western Caribbean Sea.

It appears unlikely that any major developments will occur before the system reaches Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula on Friday morning.

Some development is possible over the weekend into early next week after the system appears over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

  • Chance of formation within 48 hours: Almost 0 percent.
  • Chance of formation during 7 days: Low, 30 percent.

Northwest Atlantic Ocean: A non-tropical low pressure area a few hundred miles east of North Carolina is producing patchy showers and thunderstorms in the northeast and east of the center.

This system could take on some subtropical characteristics over the next few days as it moves generally north-northeastward and remains offshore of the northeastern U.S. No further subtropical development is expected once the low moves over cooler waters Saturday night.

  • Chance of formation after 48 hours: low, 20 percent.
  • Chance of formation after seven days: low, 20 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic Ocean: A broad low pressure area over the eastern tropical Atlantic is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Slow development of this system is possible over the next few days as it drifts northwest or north.

  • Chance of formation after 48 hours: low, 10 percent.
  • Chance of formation after seven days: low, 20 percent.

Central Tropical Atlantic Ocean: Another tropical wave is located a few hundred kilometers east of the Leeward Islands, producing isolated showers and thunderstorms.

Strong high-altitude winds are expected to limit the development of this system over the next few days as it moves west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

Early next week, conditions could become more favorable for slow development as the system moves west-northwestward across the southwest Atlantic Ocean.

  • Chance of formation within 48 hours: Low, almost 0 percent.
  • Chance of formation during 7 days: Low, 10 percent.

What do the colored areas on the NOAA map mean?

The shaded areas on a tropical watch map indicate “areas where a tropical cyclone — which can be a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane — could develop,” said Jamie Rhome, deputy director of the National Hurricane Center.

The colours show how likely it is that a system will develop. Yellow stands for low, orange for medium and red for high.

The National Hurricane Center does not typically issue tropical weather warnings until a storm has been named. There is one exception, however.

“If a system is close to land and there is potential for development, the National Hurricane Center will not wait to issue warnings, even if the system has not yet become a full-blown storm. This gives residents time to prepare,” Rhome said.

How many named storms have occurred in 2024?

So far in the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, there have been five named storms:

  • Tropical Storm Alberto: Made landfall along the Texas coast in June 2024, causing some flooding. Impact to the region was less than initially predicted.
  • Hurricane Beryl: On July 8, a Category 1 hurricane tore across the Texas coast near Matagorda, killing at least 38 people and setting a record for tornado spinoffs.
  • Tropical Storm Chris: Caused heavy rainfall and flooding in parts of Mexico in early July.
  • Hurricane Debby: Made landfall near Steinhatchee, Florida, on August 5, causing severe damage along the East Coast, killing at least 10 people.
  • Hurricane Ernesto: Hits Puerto Rico on August 24 with significant flooding, then hits Bermuda. It was a moderate hurricane with three indirect deaths.

What is La Nina?

La Niña – “little girl” in Spanish – is the climate phenomenon described when the surface temperatures of the Pacific Ocean near the equator are lower than the long-term average. El Niño – “little boy” in Spanish, her brother – is a climate phenomenon that occurs when those waters are warmer than normal.

The cooler temperatures at Earth’s surface could lead to warmer, drier weather in the southern US and the potential for a “hyperactive” hurricane season in the Atlantic this year.

Hurricane Storm Tracker: View Active Storms in the Atlantic Ocean

Weather Alerts and Warnings for Texas

A warning means that conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.

A watch means that conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is usually issued 48 hours before the first expected tropical storm force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.