According to estimates, damage costs will skyrocket in the 2024 hurricane season in the US

VaselineNovember 1, 2024

0 5 minutes read

Preliminary data on economic losses show that 2024 will likely be one of the costlier hurricane seasons in modern times.

After five hurricanes made landfall on the continental United States, the disastrous 2024 hurricane season may not be over just yet. With just over a month to go, forecasters are keeping an eye on a potential storm in the Caribbean.

Even without another storm, the preliminary toll in economic losses — with initial estimates ranging from $127 billion to $129 billion — means it will likely be one of the costlier hurricane seasons in modern times.

Comparing estimated hurricane damage over time can be difficult, but losses after the busy 2005 hurricane season ranged from roughly $175 billion, adjusted for inflation, to more than $200 billion. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, losses per hurricane have averaged almost $23 billion since 1980.

“Overall, this is a very impactful season,” said Jeff Waters, director of North Atlantic Hurricane Models for Moody’s, a global research and analysis firm. “We’re certainly entering a category where this season will stand out in terms of collective insured losses.”

So far, the disastrous season has produced ten hurricanes, including four major hurricanes and five other named storms. Evidence of the devastation is scattered across at least eight states.

More than 300 lives have been lost in the US. The search for the missing and efforts to restore utilities continue in the mountains of North Carolina. Huge piles of rubble line streets in communities in a swathe across Florida.

In a recent preliminary report, Gallagher Re, a global reinsurance broker, said it “conservatively” estimates the total economic losses from Helene and Milton alone at well over $100 billion.

Billions in damage during 2024 hurricane season

Moody’s, Gallagher Re and CoreLogic, a real estate data and analytics company, released preliminary estimates of insured losses and the economic costs of the storms. Here’s a summary:

Beryl – After battering the Caribbean and setting records for the earliest Category 4 and 5 hurricane, Beryl made landfall in Matagorda, Texas, on July 8 with winds of 80 miles per hour, leaving its remnants more than It spawned 60 tornadoes and rain in a swath through the Northeast, claiming at least 38 lives, according to The Associated Press.

Insured losses in the US are estimated at between $2.5 billion and $4.5 billion. Total economic losses, including the Virgin Islands, are estimated at more than $7.5 billion.

Debby – Debby became the second hurricane to hit the same Florida county in less than a year. Debby made landfall near Steinhatchee on August 5 as a Category 1 hurricane and made landfall again three days later near Bulls Bay, South Carolina, as a tropical storm.

Estimates for insured losses range from $1.5 billion to $3.4 billion, with Gallagher Re estimating total economic losses at $7 billion.

Francine – After forming in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, Francine quickly intensified into a Category 2 hurricane and made landfall in Terrebonne Parish on the Louisiana coast just three days later on September 11 with winds of 100 miles per hour .

Insured losses were estimated at between $1.5 billion and $2 billion, and economic damage at $15 billion.

Helene – After forming in the Northwestern Caribbean, Helene quickly grew into a major hurricane. It became the third hurricane to hit Taylor County, Florida in just 13 months when it made landfall on September 26 with winds of 140 miles per hour. By sustaining high winds and driving massive rainfall, it caused damage across the southeast, including catastrophic flooding and landslides. in North Carolina and Tennessee.

So far, 227 deaths have been attributed to the hurricane. Insured losses were estimated at between $8 billion and $17.5 billion.

Milton – The small storm whipped up winds of more than 200 miles per hour in the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico before hitting Florida as a Category 3 hurricane just a month after Helene. State officials have reported at least 29 deaths.

The storm caused an estimated $17 billion to $36 billion in economic losses. According to CoreLogic, the majority of insured losses were wind damage at $13 billion to $22 billion, but that doesn’t include all 43 tornadoes that struck the southern half of Florida.

As Milton neared landfall, “it interacted with the jet stream over the southeastern U.S., causing the winds on the northern and northwestern sides of the hurricane — which are generally known to be weaker — to become atypically strong,” says Daniel Betten, director of forensic meteorology at CoreLogic. As a result, the storm created “two distinct lines of damaging hurricane-force winds.”

Together, Helene and Milton could cost the National Flood Insurance Program more than $5 billion, Moody’s estimates, while Gallagher Re estimated the total cost of the two storms at more than $100 billion.

Which hurricane season caused the most economic damage?

Unfortunately, other recent seasons also stand out, whether it’s 2022, with Ian, or 2017, with Harvey, Irma and Maria, Waters said.

It can be difficult to compare hurricane seasons over time in terms of costs. There are many more people living in hurricane-prone areas than ever before, with more expensive properties. Research studies also indicate that structures are being built with stricter building codes than in the past.

For decades, Roger Pielke Jr., a professor at the University of Colorado Boulder, has worked with other scientists on studies that normalize hurricane season losses dating back to 1900, not only adjusting for inflation but also calculating prosperity and the coastal population. Pielke updates the figures every year.

His latest preliminary normalized estimates for 2024, provided by Pielke on Wednesday, and previous studies show that the 1926 season, with the Great Miami Hurricane, would be considered the most expensive season in history, at about $308 billion. The hurricane caused catastrophic damage in Miami and along the Gulf Coast.

The infamous 2005 hurricane season is the second costliest on record, with total damage estimated at $215 billion after seven hurricanes made landfall in the US, including Katrina. Normalized losses for the 1900 season, including Hurricane Galveston, put it in third place at $176 billion.

With Pielke’s latest preliminary estimates adjusted only for inflation in 2024 dollars, the 2005, 2017 and 2022 hurricane seasons rank first, second and third, at $173 billion, $127 billion and $118 billion.

Growing concerns

Increasing inland rainfall, such as the 91.33 inches observed before and during Helene in Busick, North Carolina, and the associated increase in deaths from flooding, have become a growing concern for residents, the National Hurricane Center and the insurance industry.

This summer’s flood losses, such as those in North Carolina’s mountains and the storm surge on Florida’s coast, underscore a key concern: the gap between those who have flood insurance and those who don’t, Waters said. The activities over the past five to seven years “underscore the need to close that gap.”

Improving the ability to assess risks

For agents and insurance companies trying to write insurance, one of the challenges is understanding the evolving landscape, Waters said.

Part of that is learning to use the catastrophe models being developed to try to quantify near-term risk and look to the future, including how the warming world will affect certain hazards, he said. “Climate change is definitely an area of increasing interest.”

The Gallagher Re report indicates that 2024 is still on track to be the hottest year on record. It stated: “The fingerprints of climate change are becoming increasingly apparent in individual events.”

VaselineNovember 1, 2024

0 5 minutes read

Preliminary data on economic losses show that 2024 will likely be one of the costlier hurricane seasons in modern times.

Billions in damage during 2024 hurricane season

Which hurricane season caused the most economic damage?

Growing concerns

Improving the ability to assess risks

Vaseline

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