Latest research on Harris vs. Trump

VaselineNovember 1, 2024

0 2 minutes read

It’s officially election month and presidential election polls show former President Donald Trump could have a lead over Vice President Kamala Harris among national voters.

While national polls provide a temperature check among the electorate, the Electoral College system means the race will likely be decided by seven battleground states. An exclusive USA TODAY/Suffolk poll from Friday shows Harris and Trump tied in Pennsylvania, the swing state with the most electoral votes.

Trump will visit two other “blue wall” states on Friday with rallies planned in Wisconsin and Michigan. Harris also plans to visit Wisconsin.

Here’s what you need to know about where the race stands.

Trump leads Harris by 2% in the new AtlasIntel poll

Trump leads Harris by two percentage points in a new national poll from AtlasIntel released Thursday afternoon.

The survey of 3,490 likely voters from across the US showed Trump leading Harris 49.1% to 47.2% with a margin of error of two percentage points. When asked to choose between the candidates in a race with no third-party options, 49.6% of respondents said they would vote for Trump, and 48.2% said they would vote for Harris.

The poll was conducted on Wednesday and Thursday. More polls from AtlasIntel are expected before Election Day.

Trump takes a small lead in the latest TIPP poll

The TIPP Tracking Poll shows that Trump took the lead by one percentage point on Friday, after being tied with Harris on Thursday.

The latest survey of 1,249 likely voters showed Trump leading Harris 49% to 48%. The poll, conducted from Tuesday to Thursday, had a margin of error of 2.7 percentage points.

“(The poll) shows a tight and steady race, with every candidate gearing up for a smooth, close landing,” TIPP said. The pollsters expect the numbers to fluctuate between Harris +1 and Trump +2 in the final days before the election.

Things to keep in mind when voting

The margin of error describes how accurately we can count on the research results being representative of the entire population.

When a candidate’s lead is “within” the margin of error, it is considered a “statistical tie,” according to the Pew Research Center.

Pew also found that the majority of pollsters have changed their methods since the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, significantly underestimating Trump’s performance.

Kinsey Crowley is a trending news reporter at USA TODAY. Reach her at [email protected] and follow her on X and TikTok @kinseycrowley.

VaselineNovember 1, 2024

0 2 minutes read

Trump leads Harris by 2% in the new AtlasIntel poll

Trump takes a small lead in the latest TIPP poll

Things to keep in mind when voting

Vaseline

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