Sketchy spot of the week: JK Dobbins vs. CLE
Dobbins has failed to surpass 60 rushing yards in four of his last five games. Since his first two games of the season, he has struggled to break tackles and create explosive play. One of those games was against the Panthers, who we now know have one of the worst run defenses in the leagues. According to Player Profiler, Dobbins now ranks 52nd in tackles broken and just 33rd in yards per touch.
The recent poor play could only get worse this week. Dobbins will face the Browns on the road. According to PFF, Cleveland has the No. 1 run defense in the NFL. It’s a vague spot for Dobbins, who looks like a touchdown-or-bust candidate for Week 9.
If you have another option, I would consider starting with it.
Pick-and-Play of the Week: Elijah Moore vs. LAC
All the attention in the Browns’ WR room is on Cedric Tillman, and for good reason. Tillman has posted 15 catches for 180 yards and two touchdowns over the past two weeks without Amari Cooper. The hype is justified, but this hype keeps Elijah Moore’s use in Week 8 flying under the radar.
In Week 8, Moore earned a team-high 30% target share and turned it into a solid day of eight catches for 85 yards. Moore is a talented receiver who has found success in his career along with capable quarterback play. We saw that in Week 8, when Jameis Winston completed 66% of his passes for 334 yards and three touchdowns. Winston often leaned on Moore when it came to third downs and pressure situations. This is a good indication that Winston trusts Moore. You can pick up Moore this week and play against the Chargers, who allowed 107 yards to Chris Olave last week.
Trending up: WR Josh Downs
Downs was the Colts’ best receiver this season. He leads the team with a 26% target share and has finished as a top-20 receiver in four of his six starts. Downs moves up because the Colts made the move for QB Anthony Richardson and veteran Joe Flacco. This is an immediate upgrade to the entire passing attack, as Richardson completed 50% of his passes and only 25% of his deep attempts in the league.
In three starts with Joe Flacco, Downs has averaged 10 goals per game and an average fantasy finish of WR13. This means Downs has been a borderline WR1 for fantasy with Flacco as his QB. Downs will face the Vikings this week, who have struggled on defense the past two games. Minnesota allowed Jared Goff 280 yards and two touchdowns in Week 7 as he completed 88% of his passes. In Week 8, the Vikings gave up 279 yards and four touchdowns to Matthew Stafford. Start Downs with confidence this week.
Downward trend: WR Zay Flowers
Flowers shows a strong rebound. In Week 8, he produced 115 yards on seven receptions. Flowers earned a season-high 36% target share in this game, and he has now seen a team-high 27% target share for the Ravens this season. This is all great news as Flowers continues to break out in his sophomore year. But on Tuesday, Flowers’ fantasy stock took a major hit.
The Ravens traded for Diontae Johnson. Johnson is an elite target earner who knows how to separate and get open. He has earned a 26% target share since entering the NFL, for a total of 697 career targets. According to Statmuse, this ranks sixth in the NFL as of 2019. Johnson will replace Nelson Agholor in the Ravens offense. Agholor has only achieved 10% of the team’s goals this season. The addition of Johnson will likely decrease Flowers’ target share, decreasing his weekly fantasy value. Flowers are showing a downward trend despite its strong start to the season.
Sales top of the week: Tucker Kraft
Kraft has been a pleasant surprise in fantasy football this season. He was a relative unknown entering 2024. Kraft underwent offseason surgery and appeared to be behind TE Luke Musgrave on the depth chart. But from Week 1, it was clear that Kraft was the man in this TE room, when he played 96% of the Packers’ snaps. He currently ranks seventh in TE points per game this season, but his production is not sustainable. Kraft has a 20% touchdown rate this season. This means that 20% of his receptions went for touchdowns, which is about four times more than the NFL average.
Over the past three games, the Packers have gotten all of their WRs back from injury and/or suspension. During this time, Kraft has completed just 11% of the team’s goals, which ranks sixth behind RB Josh Jacobs and WR4 Dontayvion Wicks. His role is not good right now and is supported by touchdowns. According to Player Profiler, Kraft ranks 20th in TE expected fantasy points based on his usage. This puts him in close proximity to Jonnu Smith and Tyler Conklin this season. Now is the time to sell high. Try to trade him for someone like TJ Hockenson or Bucky Irving if you can.
Buy low of the week: Mike Evans
It’s the perfect time to buy low on Mike Evans. Much has been made this past week about which Bucs receiver would fill in and replace Evans and Chris Godwin in Week 8. But unfortunately the answer was none of them. Rookie Jalen McMillan led the receivers with seven targets, but could only produce 35 scoreless yards. The Bucs relied on TE Cade Otton and their RBs in the passing game instead of the relief WRs. There is a good chance that this will remain the case in the coming weeks.
Evans is a great buy low right now as he recovers from a hamstring injury. He finished as a top-10 receiver in three of his five completed games this season. Evans has earned a solid 23% goal share over those five completed games and once he returns, he will no longer have to compete with Chris Godwin for goals. But there’s more good news, as Evans has a great fantasy playoff schedule. He will face the Cowboys and Panthers; both teams rank in the top five in yards per passing play allowed this season per NFL Pro. Trade someone like JK Dobbins or Darnell Mooney for Evans if you can.
Must start of the week: Chase Brown
Brown has been a trend in the Bengals offense over the past month. Over his last three games, he leads the Bengals’ backfield at 56% and according to Fantasy Life, he has made 60% of rush attempts. In Week 8, Brown made a season-high 67% of the team’s carries and turned it into a 14-touch game for 34 yards and a touchdown. Brown has now scored more than 10 points in four of his last five games with three top-20 finishes during that span, and now Zack Moss has been ruled out with a neck injury.
This week, Brown is in a great spot. He is a seven-point home favorite against the Raiders. This ensures that Brown can earn many touches in the second half. According to PFF, Las Vegas ranks last in tackles this season. This makes them a great fit for any running back, but it’s even better for Brown as he’s breaking tackles at a top-10 rate this season. Make sure Brown is in your lineup this week and consider trading for him if he isn’t already on your roster.
Advice originally recorded before Brian Robinson Jr. was declared inactive on Sunday morning due to a hamstring injury.
Best spot of the week: Brian Robinson Jr. vs. N.Y.G
Robinson Jr. has been great for fantasy managers this season. He has scored more than 10 fantasy points in six of seven games this year and has even suffered injuries in several games. He has proven to be someone you can rely on, and his role has been great this year. Robinson is averaging more than 16 opportunities per game and is in the top 10 in red zone touches this year. The role is strong and so is its efficiency. Robinson currently ranks eighth in EPA among all RBs, and he continues to break tackles at an above-average rate.
This week, Robinson takes on a division rival in the Giants. New York is allowing the most rushing yards per game this season, coming off a week where they allowed 131 total yards to Najee Harris. Robinson starts this week with confidence.
