SARASOTA, Fla. (WWSB) – We continue to monitor the disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Caribbean Sea, now called Invest AL97. As hurricane hunter planes survey the storm, more data will be available to the spaghetti computer models. So far, the models are moving the system northwestward over Cuba through Tuesday. On Wednesday it will continue north, paralleling the west coast of Florida with the central Low well offshore. This is close enough to produce some rain and thunderstorms in Florida on Wednesday and Thursday. Most models place the storm at tropical storm strength (wind speeds of 60 to 120 km/h). Only a few of the models will make it to Category 1 strength next week.
The computer models will be in chaos on Friday and next weekend. Some are taking it to the Big Bend area, others are pushing it further west toward the Louisiana coast next weekend. As this storm continues to develop, we should gain more consensus on the models and on the track and intensity of what will likely become Rafael.
The track and intensity of this storm is still very much changing as it becomes better organized.
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