The elections remain close in the final weekend with a discouraged electorate: Poll

A discouraged electorate marks the end of the 2024 presidential campaign, with three-quarters of likely voters saying the country is seriously on the wrong track, six in 10 dissatisfied with their choice of candidates – and a tight race emerging for vice president Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump.

Harris has 49% support among likely voters in this ABC News/Ipsos poll from last weekend, Trump 46%. Reflecting the country’s inherent polarization, support for these candidates has not changed significantly since Harris replaced Joe Biden last summer.

Harris was +2 in early October, +4 last week (a slight lead) and is +3 in this survey, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates with fieldwork by Ipsos. That small three-point difference with Trump matches the average Democratic-Republican gap in the last eight presidential elections, seven of which saw Democrats win the popular vote. Either way, the outcome leaves a wide open field for the whims of the Electoral College.

One dynamic behind these results is early voting. According to data from Friday morning, 38% said they had already voted, and 56-38% chose Harris. That compares to the 62-33% among early voters last week, and in this group it’s closer than Democrats want.

See PDF for the full results.

Not happy

Satisfaction with the match, the economy and the direction of the country in general are scarce. Seventy-four percent of likely voters say the country is seriously heading in the wrong direction – the highest number just before the presidential election since 2008. Half of Harris supporters say this, rising to almost all, 98%, of Trump supporters .

The dissatisfaction partly reflects economic attitudes. Forty-two percent of likely voters say they are less well off financially than when Biden took office, compared to just 19% better off. The worst rate is at or near the highest rate since 1986 all year, reflecting the highest level of inflation Biden faced in 40 years.

Here the political divisions are particularly deep, highlighting the link between political and economic views. Seventy-eight percent of Trump supporters say they have become less prosperous under Biden. Among Harris supporters, only 8% go there.

On the other hand, partisans find a place where they can find common ground in another way—satisfaction with the major parties’ choice of candidates. Sixty percent are dissatisfied with the choice between Harris or Trump, including 61% of Harris supporters and 57% of those who support Trump.

Good change/bad change

Dissatisfaction with the country’s direction usually fuels support for change. That’s to Harris’s detriment because she has tried to distinguish herself from the Biden administration: Thirty-four percent of likely voters think that if elected she would leave things largely as they are. Of the rest, 35% think they would shake things up in a good way; 31%, in a bad way. (Among those who expect Harris’ status quo, the race is tight 48-45%, Trump-Harris.)

In Trump’s case, on the other hand, far fewer people see him sticking to the status quo; only 4% say he would leave things as they are. But more people think he’s shaking things up in a bad way, 51%, than in a good way, 45%.

Features

Harris outranks Trump on personal favorability, surpassing him, albeit by single digits, because he has the personality and temperament necessary to serve effectively as president.

She gets an even split in preference, 48-48% among likely voters. Trump is much deeper in personal disfavor, rated favorably by 37%, unfavorably by 60%.

Another result softens the sting of unfavorability for Trump: among likely voters who see both him and Harris unfavorably positioned (13% of all likely voters), Trump has a wide lead in voting preference, at 61-21%. (Of those who view only Trump negatively, and not Harris, a minimal share – 2% – still support him. Of those who view only Harris negatively, none support her.)

In terms of personality and temperament, 50% say Harris has what it takes to serve effectively, compared to 41% who say the same about Trump (including the 4% who say they both do); 12% say this is not the case either. As with the favor, Trump is pushing back against Harris’ lead by leading 50 to 25% among those who say neither has the personality and temperament to serve effectively. Furthermore, 11% of those who think he lacks the personality and temperament to serve effectively support him anyway. (Harris is supported by 6% of those who say she doesn’t have the right personality and temperament.)

Ground game

With the race so close, the final efforts to win the election could make the difference. Here, Harris maintains an advantage: Among all adults, 37% say they have been contacted by her campaign asking for their vote, compared to 33% by Trump’s. Among likely voters that goes to 45 versus 40%; and among likely voters in the seven battleground states a small 67% versus 61% – a huge level of contact.

Plus, Harris’ GOTV efforts look better targeted. Nationally, 56% of likely voters say they have been contacted by her campaign. Fewer Trump supporters, 49%, say his campaign has contacted them.

Groups

Estimates among likely Hispanic voters have held steady in three of the past four ABC/Ipsos polls, in mid-September and early October, and this one, with an average of 55-41%, Harris-Trump (54-39% in this poll). Last week’s 64-34% of Hispanic voters was different, although this was close to the 2020 exit poll result, 65-32%, Biden-Trump.

In any case, the latest result shows no ill effects from a controversial joke by a comedian during a Trump rally last weekend. And it leaves open the question of where Spanish voters end up; Doing better in this generally more Democratic group would be a coup for Trump, nationally and especially in the battlegrounds of Arizona and Nevada.

The biggest split among Spanish voters in the exit polls since 1976 was 58-40% in 2004; Getting back to this, let alone improving it, would be a major outcome for the Republican Party, which desperately needs the support of racial and ethnic minority groups as they have grown in size.

The results are similar among Spanish men and women, as was previously the case. The shift from last week is especially large among younger Hispanic people, although the sample size is small.

The voting preferences of likely voters in other groups are similar to those in previous ABC News/Ipsos polls, so there may be sampling error that is greater among smaller groups. Among them:

• Harris, who has tried to appeal to disaffected Republicans, has 7% support in that group, while 3% of Democrats support Trump. Harris also has support from 11% of conservatives, compared to Trump’s 4% among liberals.
• Independents – who have gone with the winner in nine of the last twelve presidential elections – are now +5 for Harris, 49-44%, although that is not a significant difference. Harris leads 55-37% among independent women, while it is almost 49-45%, Trump-Harris, among independent men.
• Harris has the support of 76% of black men in these results (Biden won 79% of this group in 2020) and 87% of black women.
• The race is close — a non-significant Trump +4 — among white women, 50-46%, a group he won by 11 points in 2020. A Democrat hasn’t won white women since 1996, though Al Gore came close in 2000. Trump leads by 13 points among white men, 54-41%.
• Harris has a particularly large lead among women aged 18 to 29: 69-29%. That compares to a non-significant Trump +5 among men that age, 49-44%.
• Harris maintains a lead among suburban women, 55-40%, while the battle remains close among suburban men, 49-46%, Trump-Harris.
• The gender gap among all likely voters is 16 points – a non-significant Trump +5 among men, 50-45%, Harris +11 among women, 53-42%. That’s similar to where it has been, but also similar to the average (19 points) in exit polls since 1996.
• Trump has nearly identical leads among non-college-educated white men (63-33%) and non-college-educated white women (62-33%). Of all likely voters without at least a four-year degree, Trump is +11 points (53-42%); among college graduates, Harris is +22 (59-37%).
• In a group crucial to Republican prospects, Trump leads 80-16% among white evangelical Protestants. Of all likely voters who are not white evangelical Protestants, it is Harris over Trump, 55-40%.
• The seven battleground states together look like the nation: a Harris-Trump contest of 49-46%.

The results of this poll include the most prominent active minor party candidates in the states where they are on the ballot. Of all likely voters, Libertarian Chase Oliver has 1% support, Green Party candidate Jill Stein and independent Cornel West each have less than half a percent, and “someone else” has 2%.

Methodology

This ABC News/Ipsos survey was conducted online via the probability-based Ipsos KnowledgePanel® from October 29 through November. October 1, 2024, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 3,140 adults, including 2,267 likely voters. The partisan divide among all adults is 29-29-30%, Democrats-Republicans-independents, and 33-34-29% among likely voters.

The results have a margin of sampling error of 2 percentage points, including the design effect, for the full sample and for likely voters, and 5 points for likely voters in the battleground states, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Sampling error is not the only source of differences in polls.

The survey was produced for ABC News by Langer Research Associates, with sampling and data collection by Ipsos. View details about ABC News’ survey methodology here.