EAGAN – As the Minnesota Vikings prepare to play the Indianapolis Colts in a big swing game for their season, one statistic seems to be sticking in head coach Kevin O’Connell’s mind: 50 plays.
The Vikings offense was on the field for just 50 plays in last Thursday’s loss to the Los Angeles Rams, shining a light on a problem for the Vikings all season. They simply haven’t played enough offensively. In fact, O’Connell’s team ranks 32nd in terms of plays per drive and total offensive play with 397 in seven games. That has left them struggling with consistency and their defense worn down.
What is the cause? What is the solution? Let’s dive in….
Part of the reason for the Vikings’ lack of play options is that when they have produced points, they have done so so quickly. They have scored 32 goals this season and the average number of plays it takes to reach the end zone or make a field goal is 7.2. That’s the second fastest in the NFL, behind only Detroit scoring on fewer plays.
Explosive plays in the passing game have been a big reason why this has been the case. When you score a 97-yard touchdown, the defense has to get right back on the field. Overall, Sam Darnold has racked up the third-most yards on completions of more than twenty yards in the air.
Only 11 of 32 scoring drives required more than three first downs. The Vikings have had 10 scoring drives that started from their own 30 or worse and still required three or fewer first downs. Simply put: lots of quick hits.
Since the Vikings have lost their last two games, it’s easy to forget that they were consistently winning during their 5-0 start. No team has more total plays with a lead of 9 points or more than the Vikings. In fact, the Vikings have 37 drives when they lead by at least two scores, and the next highest mark in the NFL is the Broncos (surprisingly) with 26.
With their two-point lead, the Vikings have not done a good job of putting their opponents aside. Of the 37 drives with a lead of at least 9 points, 17 have ended in punts, six in turnovers, two in turnovers on downs and they have only run an average of 2:13 off the clock.
The average NFL drive, when a team is up at least two scores, produces points on 39% of drives. The Vikings only scored on 21% of drives once they were ahead and averaged just 4.6 plays per drive. No team with at least 10 drives with a two-score lead has a lower number of plays-per-drive.
Flipping the coin, the Vikings defense has been on the field for most plays with a lead of at least nine points and overall they have been very successful, giving up scores on 28% of drives (5 % below the league average) and turnover on 20% of such brackets. However, the opposition averages 5.7 plays per drive.
We can say quite clearly that their total number of plays has been affected by the score and their performance when they are ahead by a wide margin.
*stats with Stathead from Pro-Football Reference
Quick scores and scoring margins aren’t the only reason for the Vikings’ lack of overall play.
There have been 21 drives that were negatively affected by penalties, that is, they were on the wrong side of the net penalty yard difference. Only four of those drives ended in the end zone, three ended with field goals, 11 ended with punts, one with a turnover and one with a turnover on downs. This means that 33% yielded points and that 52.4% needed a punt.
Turning it around, the Vikings have 60 drives where they are even or to the right of the penalty meter and they scored on 43% of those opportunities and punted on only 25%.
The Vikings rank 5th in overall penalties per game and third in pre-snap penalties, behind only Cleveland and Chicago.
On Friday, O’Connell discussed how to reduce race postponements and false start flags.
“Sam (Darnold) has done so many good things at a high level, especially throwing the football for us. I think we all have to remember that this is his first year starting (in the system).”
“We’ve got to do some things to help him out. We’ve got to shorten that play clock when we break the huddle every time in practice and try to push ourselves against it a little bit. There’s some other times where part of the bigger whole of Can we make it easier for the guys around him to get clarity while never compromising what we think gives us the best chance to win in an NFL offense trying to move the ball and score points? scoring. There’s a good balance there.”
Another disk killer has been pockets. Sam Darnold has been sacked on 10.4% of his drop backs, second-highest in the NFL, and he is responsible for the fifth-most sacks.
That plays into the issues with Darnold understanding where to go with football.
“We can just continue to help him from a philosophical perspective, the play intent, the kind of things we’re chasing and the risk-reward for some things, which might not be about turnovers, but about keeping the ball, trying to get things done to make up for it based on his confidence in the game, the diagram, what he thought it would be,” O’Connell said. “And more importantly, his confidence in the guys who set routes for him. But all that comes with just the volume of plays. And I think we want to possess the ball. We don’t want to force our defense to take more shots than necessary.”
The Vikings have allowed 15 drives of at least 10 plays or more, which is the 10th most in the NFL. They have given up the ninth-highest percentage of pass completions that have gained between 1 and 10 yards, and the third-highest percentage of short completions that have resulted in first downs. Against the Rams, Matthew Stafford had 20 attempts on passes that traveled less than 10 yards and 16 for 110 yards.
The short passes helped beat the Vikings’ vaunted pressure. Stafford went 10-for-13 with 128 yards and Jared Goff completed 15-for-16 for 165 yards as the Vikings dispatched at least five rushers.
“That’s just the chess match throughout the season,” Flores said. “I think it’s about how much do you add in a week?… What players do you have available? I think it all comes into play when you get into the – hey, we’ve done this for these four or five weeks, now we have to move on from this.
The running against the Vikings has also increased over the past two weeks. Prior to the game with the Lions, they only allowed more than 100 yards rushing once on the season, but Detroit posted 144 and Los Angeles 107.
The Vikings’ problem with a lack of offensive options is influenced by circumstances, style of play and missteps. There are certain elements that will be difficult to solve, but penalties can be cleared and Flores can make adjustments to better limit the opponent’s short passing games versus his blitzes in the coming weeks. And if the Vikings still get fewer plays because they’re up by three scores, no one would argue with that.
