- The country’s temperature forecast for this winter shows a stark contrast.
- Much of the south and east is forecast to be milder than average.
- The northwest is preferred, with temperatures farthest below average.
Winter temperatures are forecast to be warmer than average across much of the southern and eastern United States, but the Northwest has turned colder, according to an updated forecast released Friday by The Weather Company and Atmospheric G2.
The big picture for the next three months: A large area from the southwest to the east coast is expected to have above-average temperatures from December through February. Temperatures are expected to be furthest above average in the Deep South.
Much of the Northwest, Northern Rockies and Northern Plains may be colder than average. Since the last outlook in October, forecasts have become increasingly colder, from Washington and northern and western Oregon to northern Idaho and much of Montana.
Temperature forecast December-February
Keep in mind that this outlook is a general three-month trend. Therefore, we will likely see periods that are warmer or colder in every region of the country compared to what is shown above.
“While winters are clearly getting warmer, there has been increasing cold volatility in recent years,” said Todd Crawford, Vice President of Meteorology at Atmospheric G2. He added: “We expect another one to two periods of major cold this winter, probably sooner rather than later given La Niña conditions.”
Overall, the best chance for colder weather could be in December. As mentioned above, a weak La Niña is favored this winter, which has historically meant that early winter has the best chance for colder air to move in to the east.
Given that the temperature pattern for December still favors warmer than average conditions in the south and east, but perhaps not the extremes of the months that follow. An area from the West Coast to the Northern Plains is expected to be at least slightly colder than average.
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Temperature outlook for December
The forecasts for January and February contrast with a warmer south and east versus a colder northwest. Historically, these two months are when a collapse of the polar vortex has led to extended periods of colder weather in some winters. But according to Crawford, the chance of that happening this winter is smaller than normal.
Forecasters will still keep an eye on that possibility in the coming months, but for now a wide area, from the southern tier of the country to parts of the Midwest and Northeast, is expected to see above-average temperatures in January and February. Temperatures are forecast to be furthest above average in the south.
The Northwest will again experience colder than average temperatures in the first two months of 2024, but February could be the furthest below average.
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Temperature outlook for January
Temperature outlook for February
Chris Dolce has been a senior meteorologist at Weather.com for more than 10 years after starting his career at The Weather Channel in the early 2000s.
