Jon Jones has been waiting a long time for this, even if no one else has.
When Jones captured a vacant heavyweight title with an absolute thrashing of Ciryl Gane at UFC 285, few disagreed with the suggestion that Jones’ first defense could be against Stipe Miocic, a fellow legend of the game. Miocic holds the record for most successful consecutive defenses (3) in the division, having defended it a total of four times over two reigns.
The problem is that Jones’ title win happened in March. From 2023.
Miocic has not fought since his second title streak was ended by a knockout of Francis Ngannou in March. From 2021. He hasn’t won a fight since August 2020.
And during all that time, a promising heavyweight named Tom Aspinall rose to the top of the division with a brilliant series of knockouts against top competitors. Aspinall is currently the interim champion, has already defended once against Curtis Blaydes to avenge his only UFC loss, and is ranked No. 1 in the MMA Fighting Global Rankings, while Jones and Miocic have both been removed for inactivity.
We’ve all had to accept that Jones would never fight Aspinall this year (it should be noted that Jones spent much of the first half of 2024 recovering from a chest injury) and may never fight Aspinall, so the only thing we can do is appreciate that we are about to see the dream match between Jones and Miocic, even if its expiration date has already passed a bit.
In other main card action, lightweight contenders Charles Oliveira and Michael Chandler rematch in a five-round co-headliner, undefeated middleweight prospect Bo Nickal takes on the challenge of veteran Paul Craig, top-15 flyweight Viviane Araujo looks to end Karine Silva’s 10-fight win streak , and Mauricio Ruffy and James Llontop attempt to open the pay-per-view with a highlight reel.
What: UFC309
Where: Madison Square Garden in New York
When: Saturday, November 16. The four-fight early preliminary card begins at 6:00 PM ET on ESPN+ and Hulu, followed by a four-fight preliminary card airing on ESPN+, ESPNews, FX and Hulu at 8:00 PM ET. The five-fight main card kicks off at 10:00 PM ET, exclusively on ESPN+ pay-per-view.
(Numbers in brackets indicate that you are standing in the room MMA Fighting World Rankings And Pound-for-Pound Rankings)
Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic
All nonsense aside, this is still Jon Jones we’re talking about here. And when the cage door closes, Jon Jones is still damn good.
There have been some calls for Jones in recent years, but I’ve always believed that Jones is at his worst when he doesn’t have the right motivation (see: Dominick Reyes, Thiago Santos). While that’s an easy excuse for ‘Bones’ when he’s having an off night, it’s fair to compare those performances to when he’s at his best.
He battered Ciryl Gane, an athletic heavyweight who on paper presented Jones with serious problems (except in the takedown defense department). Alexander Gustafsson, one of Jones’ first real tests, didn’t get past Round 3 as Jones was locked in for the rematch. He has two convincing wins over Daniel Cormier (one of which was erased from history due to a failed drug test, but still!).
While some of his most memorable moments happened years ago, I have no reason to believe he has lost his unique combination of skills. Elite wrestling. Cruel ground-and-pound. Frustrating long shot. Nearly impenetrable defense. Clinch work that might be the best we’ve ever seen from a mixed martial artist.
It sounds ridiculous to dismiss Stipe Miocic as someone who only has a shot at a puncher, but what else can we do when discussing the odds for a fighter who recently celebrated his 42nd birthday and hasn’t had a fight in over four years won? Miocic has never had as arrogant and invincible an air as Jones, which is one of the reasons why his time at the top is so fascinating.
Miocic is a great wrestler and has more than enough power to hurt Jones if he can close the distance. That’s such a huge ‘if’. Jones has such a speed and athletic advantage over Miocic that it’s almost impossible for him to get caught early unless he completely underestimates the challenger. And if Miocic gets too close, Jones will try to dump him on his back. If (there’s that word again) Miocic can land a takedown or two, this fight will be interesting.
There are just too many ways for Jones to win here and this certainly falls into the category of fights he’s motivated for. He hasn’t shut up about it in over a year!
So we get Good Jon Jones on Saturday night, who adds another impressive name to his hit list. Then we can pontificate endlessly about what he might do next.
Choose: Jones
Charles Oliveira (4, P4P-17) vs. Michael Chandler
This is such a dangerous fight for Charles Oliveira with little upside, it actually makes me feel seriously upset. What’s in it for him if he beats Michael Chandler again? Would it really give him another chance against Islam Makhachev? Or if Makhachev loses to Arman Tsarukyan in a yet-to-be-booked title fight, would Oliveira get a rematch with Tsarukyan, who just beat him in a competitive fight last April?
He definitely doesn’t have as many obvious reasons to be motivated as Chandler does. ‘Iron Mike’ can avenge a loss, steal the show at Madison Square Garden and possibly land a title shot after wasting the last two years chasing Conor McGregor. We can criticize Chandler all we want for his dogged pursuit of McGregor, but somehow he always finds a way to keep his name at the front of the battle.
As strange as the timing is for this rematch, it should make for a compelling fight. Oliveira is always willing to take the risk for the cookie and you can bet Chandler will be there to face him head-to-head every time. I’ll always prefer “Do Bronx” in this scenario, so he needs to close the door on this non-feud, forcing a tap from Chandler this time.
Choose: Oliveira
Bo Nickal vs. Paul Craig
Quality booking here as Bo Nickal has a legitimate test ahead of him in Paul Craig. That’s a big step up from Cody Brundage, Val Woodburn and Jamie Pickett.
That said, Craig is also the perfect name to bring a prospect. He’s on the other side of 35, he’s in a 1-4 crisis (with all his losses coming against quality fighters) and he’s very susceptible to a finish. In fact, he has some impressive wins under his belt, so if Nickal beats him, he can say he beat the guy who beat the boys. Smart way to push a prospect.
It is not without reason that Nickal is the biggest favorite on the card. He’s aggressive, explosive and, oh yeah, he can wrestle a little. Craig is an avid wrestler when it comes to countering his back, but that would be a mistake if Nickal comes at him. I see Craig trying to use his skilled guile to trap Nickal, but he gets obliterated on the floor.
Choose: Nickel
Viviane Araujo (12) vs. Karine Silva
This matchup doesn’t get the same level of hype, but Karine Silva faces a similar challenge as Nickal. Viviane Araujo is a mainstay in the flyweight rankings and remains a tough opponent, even with losses in three of her past four fights. She is almost impossible to finish, she is a strong wrestler and she doesn’t mind making a fight ugly to win.
Silva has stormed out of the gate to begin her UFC career, finishing her first three opponents in the first round and then earning a decision nod over veteran Ariane da Silva. She is ready to climb the rankings and that starts with Araujo, who has typically only lost to contenders.
It is the calculated aggression with which Silva fights that makes her so dangerous. She is never in a hurry and never tries to figure out her next move. When she sees an opening, she jumps; if she feels weakness, she’s done. Silva’s win over da Silva marked the first time she had to go to the scorecards to secure a win.
A ground fight could end in a stalemate, so I prefer Silva making the most of her moments on her feet and using well-timed power punches to stay on the card. She will score points from top position if the opportunity arises, but otherwise I expect Silva to deliver a mature performance en route to a decisive win.
Choose: Silva
Mauricio Ruffy vs. James Llontop
Take Mauricio Ruffy’s creative and athletic offense and pair it with a short-lived opponent with defensive deficiencies. Can you say… Performance of the Night bonus?
James Llontop failed to make the agreed-upon catchweight limit for this fight after being called up two weeks ago, so based on that it’s fair to say he’s not at his best. I’m sure he goes in with the intention of winning, but if he goes over the limit it says a lot about how prepared he is to take on one of the most exciting newcomers in the lightweight division.
Look for Llontop to come out early to try to catch Ruffy off guard and alleviate any cardio issues. Ruffy will use slick moves to create angles from which to take Llontop apart before performing a coup de grace attack. And the Fighting Nerds move on.
Ruffy by knockout in the first round.
Choose: Ruffy
Preliminaries
Jonathan Martinez def. Marcus McGhee
Chris Weidman def. Erik Anders
Jim Miller definitively. Damon Jackson
David Onama def. Roberto Romero
Marcin Tybura (9) def. Jonata Diniz
Ramiz Brahimaj def. Mickey Gall
Oban Elliott def. Bassil Hafez
Veronica Hardy def. Eduarda Moura
