Before the season started, Utah was the favorite to win the Big 12 championship at 3-1 odds.
Instead, the Utes have had an injury-plagued season on their way to a 4-5 record. Saturday’s opponent, Colorado, has romped to a 7-2 record and is the odds-on favorite to win the conference.
Utah will need to have a short memory and recover quickly from last week’s heartbreaking Holy War home loss to BYU.
Colorado opened as a 9.5-point favorite in this game, with the market backing the Buffs and pushing the spread to -11.5. It was Friday afternoon at 11 o’clock.
Where is the value in this Big 12 matchup? Let’s dive in.
Utah vs. Colorado Opportunities
(12 p.m. ET, FOX)
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Utah | +11 (-110) | +340 | <45.5 (-105) |
| Colorado | -11 (-110) | -450 | u45.5 (-115) |
Utah vs Colorado Prediction
When Utah has the ball
The Utes started their third quarterback of the year, Brandon Rose, last week and he has had success. However, Rose suffered a torn Lisfranc ligament, ending his season.
Utah will now return true freshman Isaac Wilson, who has had an up-and-down campaign with eight passing touchdowns and eight interceptions.
Wilson will be without wide receivers Money Parks and Mycah Pittman and tight end Brant Kuithe, who led the team with six touchdowns this year. Interim offensive coordinator Mike Bajakian will have an uphill battle to generate consistent production with this injury-plagued group.
One of the biggest surprises of the season has been Colorado’s defense, as first-year defensive coordinator Robert Livingston’s devastating 2-4-5 scheme has led to a high performance. The Buffaloes rank in the top 30 in EPA/play allowed, defensive finishing drives and destruction rate.
When Colorado has the ball
Shedeur Sanders is having an excellent season for the Buffaloes, throwing 24 touchdowns and just six interceptions. He is PFF’s fourth-highest rated passer and ranks third in adjusted completion percentage.
Travis Hunter leads the team with 69 catches for 856 yards and nine touchdowns as the current Heisman favorite.
Colorado’s offensive line has improved significantly from last year, and the Buffs rank 42nd in PFF pass-blocking grades.
Sanders has seen a noticeable drop in his production when the defense comes home, going from a 79.2% completion rate from a clean pocket to a 51.7% completion rate when under pressure.
Utah will look to put pressure on Sanders with the sixth-ranked defense in chaos.
While Utah’s offense has struggled to find consistency, the defense remains elite. Defensive coordinator Morgan Scalley’s group ranks in the top 20 in EPA/play and yards allowed per play.
According to Sports Info Solutions, the Utes have the nation’s best defense in terms of creating contested catches.
Betting on college football?
Utah vs. Colorado choice
According to Action Network analyst Collin Wilson’s research, Sanders has mediocre numbers against man coverage and Cover 1, the Utes’ most common defensive schemes.
Utah’s defense may be the best the Buffaloes have seen all season and I expect it to perform well. The Utes need to win to reach a bowl game.
The Buffaloes’ defense is one of the most improved units in college football and should find success in shutting down a Utah offense that has been ravaged by injuries this season.
With an early kick-off at 10am local time, I expect a slow start with both defenses finding success early in the match.
Best bet: First half under 23.5 points (-115, BetMGM)
Why trust New York Post betting
Jacob Wayne handicaps college football and the NFL for the New York Post. He is up 84.5 units in the two sports with an ROI of 6.27%.
