UFC 309: Preliminary picks and predictions

UFC 309 takes place this weekend at Madison Square Garden and features the highly anticipated heavyweight clash between champion Jon Jones and Stipe Miocic. Chris Weidman, Jhonata Diniz and Marcus McGhee are all on an action-packed preliminary card.

Here are my top free preliminary picks and predictions for UFC 309 from Madison Square Garden on Saturday, November 16.

UFC 309 preliminary picks and predictions

Battle 1
• Prediction: Jhonata Diniz ML (+120 at BET99)
• Best bet: Over 1.5 rounds (-135 at BET99)

Fight 2
• Prediction: Marcus McGhee ML (-140 at BET99)
• Best bet: McGhee round 1 (+525 at BET99)

Fight 3
• Prediction: Chris Weidman ML (+100 at BET99)
• Best bet: Over 2.5 rounds (-220 at BET99)

Click on each fight to go to the full analysis.

UFC 309 prelims and picks

Marcin Tybura vs. Jhonata Diniz fighting odds

Method of victory	Tybura	Diniz
To win outright	-135	+110
To win by KO/TKO	+475	+165
To win by decision	+335	+725
To win by submission	+295	+2500
To draw	+2500	+2500

Odds from 11-16.

Jhonata Diniz was pulled from a fight with Derrick Lewis last weekend and now faces a more dangerous opponent in Marcin Tybura.

While Tybura isn’t particularly flashy, he is a grinder who can knock opponents to the ground, and Diniz becomes functionally ineffective if he is caught off guard.

However, Diniz’s superior striking and movement should be enough to keep Tybura at bay. Tybura is not a mobile heavyweight, and Diniz’s kickboxing skills will likely allow him to target Tybura’s legs and body, slowing him down as the fight progresses.

With Tybura coming in as a late replacement and Diniz already in good form following Lewis’ cancellation, Diniz should be ready to stand out against the heavyweight mainstay. As long as Diniz stays off the mat, he can take Tybura apart. That said, the methodical pace at which both men are fighting suggests it’s best to bet it’s over 1.5 rounds.

Prediction: Jhonata Diniz ML (+120 at BET99)
Best bet: Over 1.5 rounds (-135 at BET99)

Johnathan Martinez vs. Marcus McGhee battles odds

Method of victory	Martinez	McGhee
To win outright	+105	-130
To win by KO/TKO	+475	+235
To win by decision	+230	+255
To win by submission	+1350	+1450
To draw	+2500	+2500

Odds from 11-16.

This proves to be a striking match, with Marcus McGhee’s stopping power extending beyond the first lap.

While he may not be as effective after the first stanza, he is naturally heavy-handed, and Johnathan Martinez’s only option to win this fight is to stick with McGhee, staying aware of his defenses as he waits for an opportunity to strike while he slows down.

Admittedly, I don’t think Martinez will get that far. McGhee’s intensity and power will shine through, and he will catch and stop Martinez with a first-round knockout.

Prediction: Marcus McGhee ML (-140 at BET99)
Best bet: McGhee round 1 (+525 at BET99)

Chris Weidman vs. Eryk Anders battles the odds

Method of victory	Weidman	Otherwise
To win outright	+100	-120
To win by KO/TKO	+625	+380
To win by decision	+195	+185
To win by submission	+950	+1550
To draw	+2500	+2500

Odds from 11-16

At 41 years old, Chris Weidman is no longer a world-class fighter, but he is still a former champion with excellent wrestling and experience.

Eryk Anders is unlikely to beat Weidman on the ground, and while he may have an advantage in striking, Weidman is no slouch in the standup game and may be the more refined striker.

Ultimately, Weidman won’t come guns blazing like Anders, and he should have enough in the tank to see the fight through.

I’m picking Weidman to cause a minor upset because he can still beat someone like Anders, but I’ll take my best guess as a safer choice that the fight goes over 2.5 rounds.

Prediction: Chris Weidman ML (+100 at BET99)
Best bet: Over 2.5 rounds (-220 at BET99)

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