The story of the rivalry between Italy and France dates back to the early 20th century. Fans have been treated to countless World Cup matches between these teams, with superstars on each team. There have been two grand finals, painful shootout losses and the most shocking headbutt in the history of football.
It’s never a dull affair between Italy and France and it will be no different on Sunday when Les Bleus travel to Milan to top their Nations League group after being beaten 3-1 at home by the Azzurri in September. So will it be revenge or a repeat this weekend?
It’s been two months since Federico Dimarco, Davide Frattesi and Giacomo Raspadori struck on Italy’s dream night in Paris to give France a humbling victory in their opening Nations League match. That trio of goals came after Bradley Barcola had put the hosts ahead in the opening 12 seconds. Even the presence of Kylian Mbappé could not help the French avoid defeat.
Since then, Italy have won twice against Israel and picked up four points from two games against Belgium, putting them in first place for their group going into this latest showdown. France, meanwhile, bounced back with three straight wins before a disappointing 0-0 draw against Israel, which dimmed their hopes of winning the group.
None of these teams will want to finish in second place if they have serious ambitions to win the league. France, who won the 2021 edition of this tournament, would face a semi-final against Spain, Germany or Portugal if they cannot overtake Italy in their group.
France were the heavy favorites to win Euro 2024 and were stunned by Spain in the semi-finals. It’s fair to say that Didier Deschamps’ men have underperformed somewhat since their 2018 World Cup victory, as they have been heavily backed to win every tournament they enter and have not won any since.
Before Israel’s result, France were in excellent form and even without Mbappé, who was injured in the three games following Italy’s defeat. Randal Kolo Muani has scored four goals in his last five games for his country, while Bayern Munich’s Michael Olise is a refreshing new face in the line-up following his big move from Crystal Palace to the Bundesliga.
This is also a chance for redemption for the Italians, who were disappointingly dumped out of the euro. The four-time world champion and two-time European champion have been quite a mixed bag lately. They won the 2020 European Championship, failed to even qualify for the 2022 World Cup and then underperformed at the last European Championships – dumped out of the last 16 by Switzerland.
You can expect Deschamps to make some changes to the team in the draw for Israel, but not too many to ensure they remain competitive. William Saliba, Christopher Nkunku, Kingsley Coman and Marcus Thuram are among the players hoping to start after being benched last time out. Italy have options like Destiny Udogie, Raspadori and Manuel Locatelli, who could come in from the cold.
Odds Italy vs France
Odds from Betfair and updated as of Friday 6pm GMT.
- Italy wins: 17/10 (+170)
- To draw: 9/4 (+225)
- France wins: 13/8 (+163)
Location: San Siro-Milan
Time: 7:45 PM GMT (2:45 PM ET), Sunday
Form guide
Nations League only
Italy: 4-1-0, 13 points (1st in Group A2), WWDWW
France: 3-1-1, 10 points (2nd in Group A2), DWWWL
Match prediction
Italy 1-2 France
I imagine we will witness a very different kind of match this time, after France’s wake-up call against Italy two months ago. Italy has lost the element of surprise and the French will have learned their lesson. Following their exit from the European Championship with a humiliating loss to their rivals was a huge pill for Deschamps to swallow and he will be keen to put things right. France have done well against top-level opposition – impressively beating Belgium home and away in this group – and I see them settling the score against Italy. However, with Italy’s two-goal win in France, the Azzurri should still top the group.
More international coverage
England vs Ireland: what England must do to secure promotion in the Nations League
Thibaut Courtois tells Belgium he will not be available for selection in the future
Lamine Yamal is missing from the Spanish squad with an ankle injury and is expected to miss two to three weeks
When Lionel Messi played against West Ham Under-21s: ‘What the hell are you doing in Romford?’
(Photo by Alessandro Buongiorno: Nicolas Tucat/AFP via Getty Images)
