The AFC looks very different than it did a week ago.
On Sunday, the Buffalo Bills defeated the Kansas City Chiefs 30-21, ultimately handing the two-time defending champions their first loss of the season. Suddenly, the Bills are in play for the top seed with the AFC East all but penetrated.
In the meantime, the Pittsburgh Steelers now have a 1.5 game lead over the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC North after beating them 18-16. The North has become a two-team race after the Cincinnati Bengals lost in Los Angeles on Sunday night.
And in the NFC, the Seattle Seahawks defeated the San Francisco 49ers, moving three teams one game behind the Arizona Cardinals in the sport’s tightest division.
But where does everyone look in the play-off picture for Monday night? Let’s break it all down.
Additional, all play-off odds are thanks to The Athletic’s model.
File: 9–1, first place, AFC West
Remaining opponents above .500: 4
Probability of the play-offs: 99%
Kansas City finally lost on Sunday, ending the impossible dream of staying undefeated. Still, the Chiefs remain the AFC’s top seed, with the Carolina Panthers and Las Vegas Raiders on deck.
File: 9–2, first place, AFC East
Remaining opponents above .500: 1
Probability of the play-offs: 99%
Buffalo earned its biggest win of the season by beating the Chiefs to earn a major tiebreaker, while also pulling within half a game of Kansas City for the top seed. The Bills now go on their bye week before hosting the San Francisco 49ers.
File: 8–2, first place, AFC North
Remaining opponents above .500: 3
Probability of the play-offs: 93%
The Steelers took advantage of three Baltimore turnovers and two missed field goals by Justin Tucker to win a key division game. Without scoring a touchdown, Pittsburgh won by six field goals.
File: 6–4, first place, AFC South
Remaining opponents above .500: 2
Probability of the play-offs: 94%
Houston visits the woeful Dallas Cowboys on Monday night before returning home to host the Tennessee Titans.
File: 7–3, second place, AFC West
Remaining opponents above .500: 4
Probability of the play-offs: 94%
After nearly blowing a 21-point lead in the second half, the Chargers found themselves just in time, marching 84 yards in three plays to win 34-27 against the Bengals. Now the Ravens come to town Monday night.
File: 7–4, second place, AFC North
Remaining opponents above .500: 4
Probability of the play-offs: 95%
With Sunday’s loss in Pittsburgh, the Ravens are now 1.5 games back in the division. The two teams will play each other again later this year, with Baltimore facing the Chargers on Monday night.
File: 6–5, third place, AFC West
Remaining opponents above .500: 2
Probability of the play-offs: 43%
With a resounding 38-6 victory over the Atlanta Falcons, Denver has gained better control of a playoff spot. The Broncos have the Raiders, Cleveland Browns and Indianapolis Colts next on the docket.
IN THE HUNT
Indianapolis Colts (5–6): With a last-minute win over the New York Jets, Anthony Richardson and the Colts remain in the race. Now, for a date with the one-loss Lions at Lucas Oil Stadium.
Miami Dolphins (4–6): The Dolphins handled the Raiders on Sunday and stayed on the hunt as the New England Patriots came to town next.
Cincinnati Bengals (4–7): The Bengals could probably make the playoffs with a win, but after losing in excruciating fashion to the Chargers, Cincinnati needs a miracle.
File: 9–1, first place, NFC North
Remaining opponents above .500: 3
Probability of the play-offs: 99%
The Lions continue to destroy everyone in their path. Detroit put another 50 spots on the board, this time with the Jacksonville Jaguars. It’s hard to argue that they don’t deserve everyone’s top spot in the power rankings.
File: 8–2, first place, NFC East
Remaining opponents above .500: 3
Probability of the play-offs: 99%
The Eagles faced the Commanders on Thursday night in a battle for first place in the NFC East. Philadelphia now has a mini-bye ahead of a visit to the Los Angeles Rams this Sunday night.
File: 6–4, first place, NFC West
Remaining opponents above .500: 1
Probability of the play-offs: 62%
Arizona has a bye week before returning to action in Week 12, where the Cardinals take on the Seattle Seahawks in the Pacific Northwest.
File: 6–5, first place, NFC South
Remaining opponents above .500: 3
Probability of the play-offs: 87%
Atlanta got steamrolled by the Broncos and while the loss hurts from a seeding perspective, the Falcons are still in charge of the NFC South. The big question is whether Atlanta can return to the three seed.
File: 8–2, second place, NFC North
Remaining opponents above .500: 4
Probability of the play-offs: 94%
Minnesota handled the Tennessee Titans with ease and kept them within one game of the Lions in the NFC North. Next up are the Chicago Bears for a three-game homestand.
File: 7–3, third place, NFC North
Remaining opponents above .500: 2
Probability of the play-offs: 79%
Green Bay had to block a 45-yard field goal as time expired to beat Chicago, but the Packers found a way. It would be shocking if they don’t make the postseason, but which seed is still up in the air.
File: 7–4, second place, NFC East
Remaining opponents above .500: 2
Probability of the play-offs: 89%
After losing to the Eagles, Washington is now a game and a half back in the NFC East and, at least until it plays Philadelphia again in December, will be relegated to playing for a wild-card spot.
IN THE HUNT
Los Angeles Rams (5–5): The Rams were expected to handle the Patriots and did so behind four Matthew Stafford touchdown passes. Now Los Angeles comes home to host the Eagles on Sunday night.
Seattle Seahawks (5–5): By beating San Francisco, the Seahawks moved up one spot in the division, while also moving closer to a game against the NFC West-leading Cardinals, who they host on Sunday.
San Francisco 49ers (5–5): San Francisco is still very much alive in the playoffs, but the urgency is increasing. The Niners face a decisive victory against the Packers next Sunday.
