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Yesterday we saw what felt like typical losses to the Bears (heartbreaking, last-second upset), Bengals (one-score disappointment), and Jaguars (horrific blowout).
Meanwhile, the Giants won (bye) by benching Daniel Jones this morning! It’s Tommy DeVito time in New York. Today:
- Steelers and Bills are the frontrunners
- Fallers include bears and jets
- The new kick-off, so far
π Trending π
Let’s start with Chris Boswell’s legendary afternoon in Pittsburgh, where the Steelers kicker hit all six of his field goals in an 18-16 win against Baltimore (Justin Tucker missed twice).
This is now the second time this season that Boswell has hit six-on-six And scored all of his team’s points in a win (Week 1 vs. Atlanta). He currently leads the NFL in total field goals made (29) and is second in percentage (96.7), with his only miss coming on a 62-yard attempt.
His 8-2 Steelers announced themselves as Super Bowl contenders with yesterday’s win, as Lamar Jackson fell to 1-4 in his career against Pittsburgh. Baltimore fell to 7-4.
Other risers/fallers from week 11:
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π Josh Allen’s MVP case. This signature touchdown run on fourth-and-2 helped his 9-2 Bills beat the Chiefs for the fourth straight time in the regular season, and gave Buffalo a lead in the AFC playoff tiebreaker. It capped a day where Allen looked like the NFL’s best player, and he did so without his starting tackle (Spencer Brown) and two leading pass catchers (Keon Coleman and Dalton Kincaid).
π§ Podcast ‘The athletic football show’: Everything you need to know from the Bills’ earnings statement.
π Starting quarterback growth. For Chicago (4-6), Caleb Williams looked… better! The early returns on their OC change have been positive, with Williams’ growth evident in perhaps the best game of his career. He led what should have been a winning drive, finishing 23-for-31 for 231 yards (plus 70 rushing yards) against a solid Packers (7-3) defense. Happy 23rd birthday, Caleb.
At Denver (6-5), Bo Nix made NFL history against Atlanta by becoming the first rookie to finish with more than 300 yards, four touchdowns, zero interceptions and a completion percentage above 80. Nick Kosmider explains why Nix looks almost unrecognizable from September. At the time, the new Rookie of the Year candidate certainly did not complete these types of darts:
In New England (3-8), Drake Maye continued to look better than I expected. He finished 30 of 40 for 282 yards, two touchdowns, one interception and a loss, but was so good against the Rams’ blitz that HC Sean McVay was impressed.
Sean McVay on Drake Maye: “He looks like a hottie. I didn’t put too much effort into him coming out. I know a lot of people who have studied him really hard and I really respect their opinions. I thought It’s great what he stood for.”
β Mark Daniels (@ByMarkDaniels) November 17, 2024
π Anthony Richardson doesn’t qualify as a rookie, but probably should: At 22, he’s younger than Williams and Nix. Despite the first three quarters littered with mistakes, Richardson’s performance in the fourth (8-of-10 passing for 129 yards and two carries for eight yards, including the game-winning touchdown) solidified Sunday’s 28-27 win over the Jets as a real victory. redemption game. The next test for the 5-6 Colts? Detroit, 9-1 after destroying Jacksonville.
Also: how?
Literally how brother pic.twitter.com/EwmoRNdVPw
β Jeremiah (@ColtsTopic) November 17, 2024
π Jim Harbaugh. As Mike Sando explores in his Pick Six column, the pace at which the Chargers head coach has changed the culture in Los Angeles is impressive. It has produced immediate results for the 7-3 Chargers, whose first 10 games look eerily similar to those of the first NFL team coached by Harbaugh, the Alex Smith-led 49ers of 2011:
| Harbaugh Team | 2011 49ers | 2024 Chargers |
|---|---|---|
|
WL |
9-1 |
7-3 |
|
PPG |
25.6 |
22.0 |
|
PPG allowed |
14.3 |
14.3 |
|
OFF EPA/Play |
-0.01 |
-0.01 |
|
DEF EPA/play |
+0.12 |
+0.11 |
|
pass TD |
13 |
13 |
|
Rush TD |
9 |
10 |
It certainly helps that Harbaugh has Justin Herbert, who can throw dimes like the one below and led the team in rushing (65 yards) in last night’s 34-27 win over Cincinnati.
small preview https://t.co/eTOogTjwUM pic.twitter.com/n4raHVJovW
βNFL (@NFL) November 18, 2024
π Taysom Hill. The Saints are now 2-0 under interim head coach Darren Rizzi (and just two games behind Atlanta), with the 34-year-old Hill’s stat line from yesterday’s win over Cleveland looking like almost an entire fantasy team:
- Three rushing TDs
- Seven carries, 138 rushing yards
- Eight receptions on 10 targets
- 50 receiving yards
- One kickoff return, 42 yards
- One complete pass, 18 yards
For those lucky enough to draft Hill into their lineups, he finished with 42.5 PPR fantasy points.
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π Falcons. A 38-6 loss to the Broncos was proof of the defensive issues that plagued these 6-5 playoff hopefuls. As Josh Kendall noted, Denver routinely broke tackles (11th-most yards after the catch in a single game this season) and took just one sack, bringing the Falcons’ total to an NFL-low 10 for the season. For perspective, the 30th-ranked Dolphins have 17, and Trey Hendrickson alone has 11.5.
π Believe in Matt Eberflus. Maybe Chicago is cursed. Maybe bad teams find a way to lose. Or maybe Eberflus is just doing the little things wrong. The day after a decision to burn 32 seconds instead of trying for a closer field goal might have cost the Bears the game, Jon Greenberg rightly asks, “How many chances will Eberflus get?”
π Jets and Bengals. The fate of New York has long been clear. Aaron Rodgers is 3-8, and every week his team has a higher pick in the first round (yes, the time has come).
But for the 4-7 Bengals, the latest one-score loss could be the nail in the coffin of 2024. Their point differential (plus one) is closer to the 4-7 Saints (plus two) than the 9-2 Bills (plus 106), who Cincy had expected to compete against.
For more:
Now to Dianna for the latest news from Jacksonville.
What Dianna heard: Doug Pederson may be gone
The Jacksonville Jaguars entered the season with what owner Shad Khan said was the “best assembled” team in franchise history. After Sunday’s humiliating 52-6 loss at Detroit, they are 2-9 on the season and 3-14 as of last December. The motivation behind a shake-up is obvious. That includes the timing, as the Jaguars enter their bye week.
By the time you read this, Doug Pederson might be done in Jacksonville.
Bill Belichick is a name to keep an eye on if the Jaguars move on from Doug Pederson. However, a partnership between the six-time Super Bowl champion and Jacksonville GM Trent Baalke is unlikely, sources say @DMRussini. pic.twitter.com/BTRfHiyK8m
β The Athletic NFL (@TheAthleticNFL) November 18, 2024
Back to you, Jacob.
Early Return: Let’s talk kickoff
With nearly 1,600 kickoffs in this new era, the only certainty about the 2024 temporary kickoff rule is that it will remain controversial. Opponents include the aforementioned Steelers kicker, who recently told Ben Roethlisberger that βthey take the kicking out of kicking.β
The actual results on the field? Disappointing. The percentage of kickoffs that are touchbacks (65.9) is still greater than the 10-year average from 2014 through 2023 (62.7). We’ve seen the second-highest number of touchbacks since the statistic was kept in 1991.
There are positives, as we wait to see if the teams (and the league itself) will adapt in the coming seasons:
- This year’s number of touchbacks is down from last year’s record (73), and the average kickoff has been returned 27 yards this season, up 17.3 percent from 2023 and nearly five yards longer than the 10 -year average (22.6).
- Injury data is not publicly available, but Commissioner Roger Goodell has said: βWe are seeing lower impacts which have resulted in fewer serious injuries and a lower number of injuries. So I think it works.β
The biggest beneficiary so far? Perhaps the Saints, whose average starting position of opponents after a kickoff (27.8-yard line, which isn’t a yard line, but you know what I mean) is the lowest mark in the NFL. They also have the second-lowest touchback percentage (27.1 percent), a notable departure from last season’s 83.5 percent.
It certainly helps that their interim head coach β and special teams coordinator β Darren Rizzi was among a group of coaches leading the new rule.
MNF example
Tonight, C.J. Stroud, who finished the week ranked 29th in EPA per dropback among quarterbacks, looks to end his sophomore slump.
His 6-4 Texans are having an excellent matchup against the 3-6 Cowboys defense, currently allowing the second-most net yards per pass attempt (7.8). Dallas’ ineptitude, along with the return of Nico Collins β with whom Stroud’s EPA per dropback was actually ninth-best β is just one reason why BetMGM has the Texans as seven-point favorites. (8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN. Full preview here.)
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(Photo: Justin K. Aller/Getty Images)
