The Sixers got the weekend off in beautiful Florida after their horrific loss to the Orlando Magic on Friday night. Now they’ll be back in action in Miami as they take on the Heat in hopes of… improving to 3-10 on the season.
Here to talk about a Miami team in a bit of need is John Jablonka, who has tremendous Heat and NBA analysis of his Substack, Simply Ballin and All U Can Heat. Let’s talk to Johannes:
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Adam Aaronson: I have to start with a Jimmy Butler question, because like Due to his availability for this game, Butler’s future seems very much up in the air at this point. From your perspective, what is the current state of Butler’s relationship with the Heat, and what are the chances of him playing for another team in the near future?
John Jablonka: This might be the biggest answer, but anything could be on the table with Butler and I wouldn’t be surprised whatever happens. Butler gives off a Kawhi Leonard-esque vibe when it comes to what he thinks about anything, whether it’s the team, the front office or what he’ll do in the future.
Before he came to Miami, the overall atmosphere was as good as it gets. Obviously there were all the rumors and reports about how he had a dressing room cancer and numerous incidents that clashed not only with players but with coaches and management as well. But here in Miami, of course, he was immediately welcomed by the fans and everyone in the franchise. I don’t think that has changed at all with him and the relationship with the coaching staff or management.
There was a whole Pat Riley call on him in the press incident, but I wouldn’t be surprised if that was just a regular Wednesday for the Heat. This is the same Butler who had to be stopped from bunching up after Erik Spoelstra before they went on a deep playoff run, business as usual. Whatever happens with Butler’s situation, I think it’s an independent decision he makes because he thinks it’s best for him in other ways, rather than ending the relationship.
As for Butler playing for another team, that’s a very likely possibility. He and his agent have said he wants to get paid. The Heat were hesitant to give him a contract extension. Depending on his play and what the market will look like in the future, anything is on the table. It’s a really weird situation because it depends on so many different factors that can influence the decision in either direction, so it’s hard to predict.
AA: Once every few years, everyone prepares to write an obituary for this era of Heat basketball – and the team inevitably experiences a resurgence. Do you believe that’s on the cards this season, or has the time finally come for the Heat to rebuild?
JJ: The logical part of me says it’s over, but the fan still clings to what’s left. If it’s not over yet, it’s definitely the last dance, because even through the thickest fan goggles I can’t see this core legitimately competing for a title for another year.
Everything that could possibly lead to a revival begins and ends with Butler. In both the 2022 and 2023 deep playoffs, it was all about Butler playing at at least a top-10 level. In certain stretches he played like a top-three player. Every contender needs that caliber of player and if not, nothing else really matters. The depth of the young players they have probably won’t matter. Terry Rozier wouldn’t make a difference. Even Tyler Herro’s improvement wouldn’t make the resurgence possible.
I’d like to believe Butler can flip the switch in April. However, he has done everything he can to show otherwise, and his recent ankle injuries also make it less convincing. I would also like to point out that the whole idea of Butler flipping the switch is overly exaggerated just in the general image you see on social media. The whole Butler is “trolling”, the story of the regular season is not what usually happens. He was always involved in the crime. He looked concerned. He was an impactful best player on the Heat in several ways. That has not been the case at all this year.
At the same time, for me, he has earned the greatest benefit of the doubt and I can’t believe he can’t do that until the time comes. When that happens, they still need 11 out of 10 things to go right for them. They need the right matchups, injury luck, hot shooting and random breakouts. With so many things having to go right, I don’t see them having a similar run to previous years.
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AA: Speaking of Rozier, he is the reason Kyle Lowry is a Sixer. Miami traded Lowry and a first-round pick for Rozier last season (Lowry was then bought out by the Charlotte Hornets, making him a free agent). How has Rozier played since the deal, and how would you rate the Lowry-for-Rozier trade in hindsight?
JJ: If I could, I would answer this with the text “If I speak, I’m in trouble” GIF, because it wasn’t pretty at all.
Rozier is as advertised. A terribly a streaky, consistently inconsistent small guard who needs the ball to be effective, but isn’t good for that role due to his ball dominance, poor shot diet, limited passing, and much worse defense than I ever expected. This year it was worse than usual as he came back from a neck injury that was much more serious than you would expect. He’s certainly not that bad when it comes to his scoring and efficiency.
But this was a bad deal. Trading an expiring contract that would have given the Heat more flexibility under the second platform, as well as trading a first-round pick from an already limited war chest, doesn’t make much sense.
Initially, I assumed this would be a trade for a guard who can give you a slight boost in shot creation and rim pressure that they haven’t had since Goran Dragić. I wasn’t expecting the Rozier-lite version of the Hornets. He should at least bounce back to his career averages, but even if he does, it still probably won’t be great or a significant change.
More Sixers-Heat information
• Date/Time: November 17, 7:30 PM EST
• Television: NBC Sports Philadelphia
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