Bitcoin’s Drop to $58,000 – The How, Why, and What Next for the Price of BTC

  • Bitcoin recently fell to $57,770, marking a 21% decline from its peak.
  • There is a shift in BTC Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) towards sell side pressure.

The cryptocurrency market has witnessed significant volatility recently, with Bitcoin leading the downturn. Over the past week, Bitcoin (BTC) has seen a… decrease of about 21% from the March peak of above $73,000, marking a significant shift in market dynamics.

Currently, Bitcoin is trading at around $57,770, continuing its downward trajectory with a slight decline of 0.2% over the past 24 hours.

Market mechanisms and the role of derivatives

James Check, a supply chain analyst, dug to the factors contributing to Bitcoin’s current bearish phase. In a detailed report, Check pointed out the similarities between current market conditions and the 2021 crash. At the time, excessive reliance on leveraged positions in futures contracts led to a sharp and painful correction.

This scenario seems to be somewhat different today. While there has been a noticeable increase in the number of long-side liquidations, Check notes that the total open interest on futures is not alarmingly high compared to the market size, suggesting that derivatives may not be the main driver of the current sell-off.

Instead, Check suggests looking at on-chain and spot market data for clearer insights.

He notes a significant shift in the Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD), which has come under pressure on the sell side, indicating that sales orders are exceeding purchases by approximately $50 million per day.

This shift is a reversal of the heavy buying activity that accompanied Bitcoin’s climb to its all-time high.

The influence of the ETF and future prospects

The market’s reaction to recent ETF activity also sheds light on investor sentiment. Bitcoin ETFs have seen muted demand, with notable outflows in recent weeks.

The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) and other ETFs have seen combined outflows of about $200 million to $330 million, suggesting interest among institutional investors is cooling.

Despite the bleak current outlook, there appear to be chances for a potential recovery. On a technical level, Bitcoin has broken the structure down.

However, on the 4-hour chart, the price has entered a critical support zone, specifically an order block, which has historically led to price rebounds.

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Notably, this position could catalyze a temporary rally, allowing Bitcoin to accumulate more liquidity at higher levels before potentially continuing its decline.

Prominent analysts, including Michael van de Poppe repeats this rally side, indicating the market may be approaching a bottom. Van de Poppe emphasized that altcoins are starting to show strength against Bitcoin, which often precedes a broader market recovery.